Tutorial: Smallpox Dynamics

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Welcome to the Smallpox Dynamics Tutorial.

Note: in order to run the dynamic simulations referred to in this tutorial, go here, to the Java Applet version. You will be directed to download the latest version of the Java plug-in.

This tutorial contains visual demonstrations of the disease transmission model presented in "Emergency Response to a Smallpox Attack: The Case for Mass Vaccination" by Edward H. Kaplan, David L. Craft, and Lawrence M. Wein (Submitted directly to PNAS Office). We use our implementation to investigate some key results from the article, and discuss their significance.


  1. Introduction
    1. Government Response to a Bio-Terror Attack
    2. Modeling a Smallpox Outbreak
    3. Implementing the Model in our Simulator
  2. Comparison of the Two Edge Scenarios
    1. Running a Trace Vaccination Scenario (TV)
    2. Running a Mass Vaccination Scenario (MV)
    3. Comparison of TV and MV Scenarios
    4. Sensitivity Analysis of the Model
  3. Running the Interim Scenario
    1. Switching from Trace to Mass Vaccination
    2. Effect of Switch Time in the Interim Scenario
  4. Closing Remarks
  5. Mathematical and Minischeme Appendix
    1. Definitions of Time-Dependent Quantities
    2. Constant Definitions
    3. Correspondence between the Quantities and Simulator's Agents
    4. Minischeme Definitions of Sharing Functions
  6. Beanshell Scripting Appendix
    1. Running Experiments in the Smallpox Dynamics Tutorial
    2. SPDynamicsSingleRun.bsh
    3. SPDynamicsExperiment.bsh
    4. SPDynamicsInterim.bsh

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